Urbanization and Political Instability: to the Development of Mathematical Models of Political Processes

Urbanization and Political Instability:
to the Development of Mathematical Models of Political Processes


Grinin L.Ye.,

Dr. Sci. (Philos.), Principal Researcher, Centre for Stability and Risk Analysis, National Research University Higher School of Economics; Leading Researcher, Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences, leonid.grinin@gmail.com


elibrary_id: 250272 | ORCID: 0000-0003-0278-2619 | RESEARCHER_ID: D-8842-2012

Korotayev A.V.,

Dr. Sci. (Philos.), Dr. Sci. (Hist.), Professor, Head of Centre for Stability and Risk Analysis, HSE University; Senior Research Fellow, RUDN University; Professor of the Faculty of Global Studies, M.V. Lomonosov Moscow State University, akorotayev@gmail.com


elibrary_id: 72980 | ORCID: 0000-0003-3014-2037 | RESEARCHER_ID: N-1160-2018


For citation:

Grinin L.Ye., Korotayev A.V. Urbanization and Political Instability: to the Development of Mathematical Models of Political Processes . – Polis. Political Studies. 2009. No. 4



Abstract

Presented in the article is a mathematical urbanization model which makes one suggest that the highest probability of bloody upheavals that may ensue in the course of internal political life, should be inherent in the indices of the proportion of the urban population between 7,5 and 22,5 per cent. This hypothesis has been corroborated by an empirical cross-national test. It has been demonstrated that at early stages of modernization, the urbanization growth is accompanied by growth of the probability of particularly bloody sociopolitical upheavals; however, further growth of urbanization is accompanied by a decrease of this probability. On the whole, with urbanization higher than 15 to 22,5 per cent, statistically significant negative correlation between urbanization level and probable frequency of occurrence of bloody political upheavals is observed.


Content No. 4, 2009

See also:


Bezvikonnaya Ye.V.,
Systemico-Synergetic Model of a Political System. – Polis. Political Studies. 2009. No3

Akhremenko A.S.,
Dynamics Aproach to Mathematical Modelling of Political Stability. – Polis. Political Studies. 2009. No3

Neklessa A.I.,
Ongoing plebiscite. Genetics of civil society. – Polis. Political Studies. 2013. No2

Linetsky A.I.,
Modernization of Traditional Societies: A Way to Prosperity or a Road to Nowhere?. – Polis. Political Studies. 2017. No4

Okunev I.Yu.,
The Stanford Model of Development Crisis. – Polis. Political Studies. 2009. No3

 
 

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