The transformation of the world order: the evolutionary aspect

The transformation of the world order:
the evolutionary aspect


Lapkin V.V.,

Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO), Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia, vvlh@politstudies.ru


elibrary_id: 43429 | ORCID: 0000-0002-0775-2630 | RESEARCHER_ID: AAB-9386-2021

Article received: 2024.05.08 17:21. Accepted: 2024.05.29 17:21


DOI: 10.17976/jpps/2024.04.11
EDN: EELNCG


For citation:

Lapkin V.V. The transformation of the world order: the evolutionary aspect. – Polis. Political Studies. 2024. No. 4. https://doi.org/10.17976/jpps/2024.04.11. EDN: EELNCG (In Russ.)



Abstract

Within the framework of the methodology of system modeling and concept analysis, as well as by using a previously developed model of evolutionary cycles of the world political and economic system, supplemented by a model of transmission of leadership and its dysfunctions in the vicinity of the “singularity” of global development, a hypothesis has been formulated to explain the features of the current degradation of the unipolar world order, clarifying its time frame and possible cumulative geo-economic and geopolitical consequences. The possibility of evolutionary transformation of the unipolar world order into a different kind of global order, built on fundamentally different organizational principles, which are not hierarchical, but rather structured like a network, is explored. Among the systemic reasons for such degradation, the most important are, firstly, the evolutionary dead end of the monopolar design of a complex system. Within the framework of such a system, both organic transmission of leadership and institutional and normative-value continuity between the elites of the old and new leader are impossible. Under these circumstances, the hegemon of the monopolar world order is forced, driven by the interests of self-preservation, to destroy the foundations of the system it itself created. Another no less important systemic reason pointing to the inevitability of “creative destruction” of the traditional hierarchically organized world order is the inertia of the prospects for global development for the subjects and actors of world politics operating today, as well as the structural and functional “poverty” of mainstream models of world socio-political and economic changes in the coordinates of global ordering/disordering. Based on the analysis of the primary symptoms of the widespread awakening of actors to subjective activity that has swept the entire modern world, qualitatively new communities have been identified – growth points of new orders, proto-institutions, norms and value orientations, potential structures of political subjectivity.

Keywords
world order, social evolution, political evolution, hierarchies, networks, transformation, conceptualization, global leadership, actors, subjects.


References

Arrighi, G. (2007). Adam Smith in Beijing: lineages of the twenty-first century. London; New York: Verso.

Bahramian, B. (2012). Transition to a new world order: what we leave behind for the next generation. Bloomington: AuthorHouse.

Berger, S., & Miller, A. (Ed.). (2015). Nationalizing empires. Budapest: Central European University Press.

Brooks, S.G., & Wohlforth, W.C. (2008). World out of balance: international relations and the challenge of American primacy. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Chase-Dunn, Ch., & Hall, T.D. (1997). Rise and demise: comparing world systems (new perspectives in sociology). Boulder: Westview Press.

Colgan, J.D., & Keohane, R.O. (2017). The liberal order is rigged: fix it now or watch it wither. Foreign Affairs, 96(3), 36-44. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/world/2017-04-17/liberal-order-rigged

Colomer, J.M. (2007). Great empires, small nations: the uncertain future of the sovereign state. London; New York: Routledge.

Duncombe, C., & Dunne, T. (2018). After liberal world order. International Affairs, 94(1), 25-42. https://doi.org/10.1093/ia/iix234

Etzioni, A. (2012). The devolution of American power. The Fletcher Forum of World Affairs, 37(1), 13-34.

Ferguson, N., & Schularick, M. (2009). The End of Chimerica. Working Paper 10-037. Harvard Business School. URL: https://www.hbs.edu/ris/Publication%20Files/10-037_0fdf7d5e-ce9e45d8-9429-84f8047db65b.pdf

Fukuyama, F. (2014). America in decay: the sources of political dysfunction. Foreign Affairs, 93(5), 5-26. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/america-decay

Haas, R.N. (2014). The unraveling: how to respond to a disordered world. Foreign Affairs, 93(6), 70-79. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2014-10-20/unraveling

Hirst, P., & Thompson, G. (1995). Globalization and the future of the nation-state. Economy and Society, 24(3), 408-442.

Ikenberry, G.J. (2011). Liberal Leviathan: the origins, crisis, and transformation of the American world order. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Ikenberry, G.J. (2018). Reflections on after victory. The British Journal of Politics and International Relations, 21(1), 5-19. https://doi.org/10.1177/1369148118791402

Ikenberry, G.J., Parmar, I., & Stokes, D. (2018). Introduction: ordering the world? Liberal internationalism in theory and practice. International Affairs, 94(1), 1-5. https://doi.org/10.1093/ia/iix277

Jervis, R. (2009). Unipolarity: a structural perspective. World Politics, 61(1), 188-213. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0043887109000070

Jones, B., Wright, Th., Shapiro, J., & Keane, R. (2014). The state of international order. Brookings Policy Paper, 33, 37-51. Foreign Policy at Brookings. The State of the International Order. Washington, D.C.

Kai He. (2012). Undermining adversaries: unipolarity, threat perception, and negative balancing strategies after the Cold War. Security Studies, 21(2), 154-191. https://doi.org/10.1080/09636412.2012.679201

Kennedy, P.M. (1989). The rise and fall of the great powers: economic change and military conflict from 1500 to 2000. London: Vintage Books.

Kolstø, P. (2006). The sustainability and future of unrecognized quasi-states. Journal of Peace Research, 43(6), 723-740. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343306068102

Layne, Ch. (2012). This time it’s real: the end of unipolarity and the Pax Americana. International Studies Quarterly, 56(1), 203-213. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2478.2011.00704.x

Mandel, E. (1995). Long Waves of Capitalist Development. A Marxist Interpretation. London; New York: Verso.

Modelski, G. (1990). Is world politics evolutionary learning? International organization, 44(1), 1-24. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818300004628

Modelski, G., & Thompson, W.R. (1996). Leading sectors and world powers: the coevolution of global economics and politics (studies in international relations). Columbia: University of South Carolina Press.

Murray, D., & Brown, D. (Ed.). (2012). Multipolarity in the 21st century: a new world order. New York. Routledge.

Parkes, R. (2016). People on the move: the new global (dis)order. Chaillot Papers, 138. Paris: EU Institute for Security Studies.

Reich, S., & Lebow, R.N. (2014). Good-bye hegemony! Power and influence in the global system. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Schweller, R.L., & Pu, X. (2011). After unipolarity, china’s vision of international order in an era of us decline. International Security, 36(1), 41-72. https://doi.org/10.1162/ISEC_a_00044

Spruyt, H. (1996). The sovereign state and its competitors: an analysis of systems change. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Spruyt, H. (2005). Ending empire: contested sovereignty and territorial partition. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.

Spruyt, H. (2013). Empires, past and present: the relevance of empire as an analytic concept. In: N. Parker (Ed.), Empire and International Order (pp. 19-40). London: Ashgate Publishing.

Stokes, D. (2018). Trump, American hegemony and the future of the liberal international order. International Affairs, 94(1), 133-150. https://doi.org/10.1093/ia/iix23

Tizzard, D.A. (2017). American unipolarity: the uneven distribution of power. Global Politics Review, 3(2), 10-25. URL: http://www.globalpoliticsreview.com/publications/2464-9929_v03_i02_p010.pdf

Turchin, P. (2013). Modeling social pressures toward political instability. Cliodynamics: The Journal of Theoretical and Mathematical History, 4(2), 241-280. https://doi.org/10.21237/C7clio4221333

Wallerstein, I. (1997). The global possibilities, 1990-2025. In: The Age of Transition: Trajectory of the World-system, 1945-2025 (Coordinated by T.K. Hopkins, I. Wallerstein) (pp. 226-243). London; New Jersey; Pluto Press.

Wallerstein, I. (2008). The demise of neoliberal globalization. Binghamton: Fernand Braudel Center, Binghamton University.

Baranovsky, V.G. (2017). Transformation of global world order: dynamics of systemic changes. Polis. Political Studies, 3, 71-91. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.17976/jpps/2017.03.05.

Baranovsky, V.G. (2019). New international order: overcoming or transforming the existing pattern? World Economy and International Relations, 63(5), 7-23. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2019-63-5-7-23

Grinin, L.E. (2005). Globalization and national sovereignty. Istoriya i sovremennost’, 1, 6-31. (In Russ.)

Grinin, L.E. (2016). World order in the past, present and future. Istoriya i sovremennost’, 1, 20-63. (In Russ.)

Ilyin, M.V. (2024). A fundamental challenge. Are the opportunities of political science being wasted? Polis. Political Studies, 2, 8-24. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.17976/jpps/2024.02.02

Ilyin, M.V., & Kudryashova, I.V. (Ed.). (2011). Asimmetriya mirovoi sistemy suvereniteta: zony problemnoi gosudarstvennosti [Asymmetry of the world system of sovereignty: areas of problematic statehood]. Moscow: MGIMO University. (In Russ.)

Kochetkov, A.P., Mamychev, A.Yu. (2024). Digital elite: trends of formation and development. Polis. Political Studies, 4, 135-145. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.17976/jpps/2024.04.10

Kokoshin, A.A., & Panov, A.N. (2014). Makrostrukturnye izmeneniya v sisteme mirovoi politiki do 2030 goda [Macrostructural changes in the system of world politics until 2030]. Moscow: KRASAND; URSS. (In Russ.)

Kondrat’ev, N.D. (1989). Problemy ehkonomicheskoi dinamiki [Problems of economic dynamics]. Moscow: Ehkonomika. (In Russ.)

Korotaev, A.V., & Grinin, L.E. (2012). Kondrat’evskie volny v mir-sistemnoi perspective [Kondratieff waves in a world-system perspective]. In A.A. Akaev, R.S. Grinberg, L.E. Grinin, A.V. Korotaev, & S.Yu. Malkov (Ed.), Kondrat’evskie volny: aspekty i perspektivy [Kondratiev Waves: Aspects and Prospects] (pp. 58-109]. Volgograd: Uchitel’. (In Russ.)

Lapkin, V.V. (2010). Problemy modelirovaniya politicheskogo razvitiya [Problems of modeling political development]. In V.I. Pantin, & V.V. Lapkin (Ed.), Tsikly politicheskogo razvitiya: prognosticheskii potentsial [Cycles of Political Development: Predictive Potential] (pp. 10-27). Moscow: IMEMO RAS. (In Russ.)

Lapkin, V.V. (2023). Ehkstraterritorial’noe soobshchestvo: gorizonty identichnosti [Extraterritorial community: horizons of identity]. In I.S. Semenenko (Ed.), Identichnost’: lichnost’, obshchestvo, politika.

Novye kontury issledovatel’skogo polya [Identity: The Individual, Society, and Politics. New Outlines of the Research Field] (pp. 86-94). Moscow: Ves Mir. (In Russ.) URL: https://www.imemo.ru/files/File/ru/publ/2023/Identichnost-Semenenko-2023.pdf

Lapkin, V.V., & Pantin, V.I. (2016). Politicheskaya dinamika: metodologiya prognozirovaniya v ramkakh paradigmy ehvolyutsionnykh tsiklov [Political dynamics: forecasting methodology within the paradigm of evolutionary cycles]. In O.V. Gaman-Golutvina (Ed.), gional’nogo razvitiya [Political Science Facing the Challenges of Global and Regional DevelopmentPoliticheskaya nauka pered vyzovami global’nogo i re] (pp. 126-147). - Moscow: Aspect Press. (In Russ.)

Martyanov, V.S. (2010). One modernity or “a multitude”? Polis. Political Studies, 6, 41-53. (In Russ.)

Modelski, G. (2003). Long cycles in world politics. (Russ. ed.: Modelski, G. Ob”yasnenie dolgikh tsiklov v mirovoi politike: osnovnye ponyatiya. In N.S. Rozov (Ed.), Vremya mira: al’manakh sovremennykh issledovanii. Vol. 3: Voina i geopolitika [The Time of the World: an Almanac of Modern Research. Vol. 3: War and Geopolitics] (pp. 455-485). Novosibirsk: Publishing House of Novosibirsk State University.)

Modelski, G. (2005a). The evolution of global politics. Polis. Political Studies, 3, 62-82. (In Russ.)

Modelski, G. (2005b). The evolution of global politics. Polis. Political Studies, 4, 124-142. (In Russ.)

Nikitin, A.I. (2018). Modern world order, its crisis and prospects. Polis. Political Studies, 6, 32-46. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.17976/jpps/2018.06.03

Pantin, V.I., & Lapkin, V.V. (2006). Filosofiya istoricheskogo prognozirovaniya: ritmy istorii i perspektivy mirovogo razvitiya v pervoi polovine XXI veka [Philosophy of historical forecasting: rhythms of history and prospects for world development in the first half of the 21st century]. Dubna: Phoenix-plus. (In Russ.)

Pantin, V.I., & Lapkin, V.V. (2014). Istoricheskoe prognozirovanie v XXI veke: Tsikly Kondrat’eva, evolyut-sionnye tsikly i perspektivy mirovogo razvitiya [Historical Forecasting in the 21st century: Kondratieff’s cycles, evolutionary cycles and prospects for world development]. Dubna: Phoenix-plus. (In Russ.)

Pantin, V.I., & Lapkin, V.V. (2020). Transition epoch of 2020 – the 2040s: cycles, singularity and alternatives of the unexpected future. Istoriya i sovremennost’, 1, 66-93. (In Russ.)

Sadovnichii, V.A., Akaev, A.A., Korotaev, A.V., & Malkov, S.Yu. (2012). Modelirovanie i prognozirovanie mirovoi dinamiki [Modeling and forecasting of world dynamics]. Moscow: ISPI RAN. (In Russ.)

Safranchuk, I.A., & Lukyanov, F.A. (2021). The contemporary world order: the adaptation of actors to structural realities. Polis. Political Studies, 4, 14-25. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.17976/jpps/2021.04.03

Shakleina, T. (2015). Leadership and contemporary world order. International Trends. Journal of International Relations Theory and World Politics, 13(4), 6-19. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.17994/IT.2015.13.4.43.1

Todd, E. (2004). After the empire. The Breakdown of the American order. (Russ. ed.: Todd, E. Posle imperii. Pax Americana – nachalo kontsa. Moscow: Mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya).

Wallerstein, I. (2001). Analiz mirovykh sistem i situatsiya v sovremennom mire [Analysis of world systems and the situation in the modern world]. St. Petersburg: University Book. (In Russ.)

Content No. 4, 2024

See also:


Bolshakov A.G.,
Our political transformation: the completion or a pause?. – Polis. Political Studies. 2013. No2

Baranovsky V.G.,
Transformation of Global World Order: Dynamics of Systemic Changes. – Polis. Political Studies. 2017. No3

Petrov S.I.,
STATE GOVERNANCE AND POLITICAL NETWORKS. – Polis. Political Studies. 2014. No4

Lapkin V.V.,
Nation vs Empire in the Modern World Order. – Polis. Political Studies. 2018. No4

Sergeyev K.V.,
“Peripheral Knowledge” in the Creativity Discourse: Social Nets of the Interesting. – Polis. Political Studies. 2003. No1

 

   

Introducing an article



Polis. Political Studies
5 2016


Sharkov F.I.
Visualization of Political Media Space

 The article text
 

Archive

   2024      2023      2022      2021   
   2020      2019      2018      2017      2016   
   2015      2014      2013      2012      2011   
   2010      2009      2008      2007      2006   
   2005      2004      2003      2002      2001   
   2000      1999      1998      1997      1996   
   1995      1994      1993      1992      1991