A decisive factor? Pro-government external interventions in civil wars
Article received: 2024.04.07 19:36. Accepted: 2024.07.15 19:36
DOI: 10.17976/jpps/2024.06.08
EDN: KDLZLU
Abdeeva D.P. A decisive factor? Pro-government external interventions in civil wars. – Polis. Political Studies. 2024. No. 6. https://doi.org/10.17976/jpps/2024.06.08. EDN: KDLZLU (In Russ.)
The research was funded by the Russian Science Foundation grant No. 22-18-00723, https://rscf.ru/ project/22-18-00723/. This research would not have been possible without the support of I. Istomin. For helpful comments on an earlier draft, the author is indebted to I. Bolgova, M. Suchkov, M. Kharkevich, V. Vinogradov, M. Kucherov, and I. Khludov.
Civil wars have been the most prevalent type of armed conflicts post-World War II. Despite the internal nature of such conflicts, foreign assistance is frequently provided to one of the parties involved, with official governments being the most frequent beneficiaries. This study employs extensive empirical evidence to analyze how external involvement in support of government forces influences the outcome of civil wars. Drawing on the bargaining model of war, a civil war is portrayed as a continuous process where the parties constantly reassess their chances of success based on individual battle outcomes. One-sided foreign intervention complicates this evaluation by exacerbating power and information asymmetries inherent to internal conflicts, leading to increased uncertainty about the opponent’s capabilities and intentions, as well as doubts about their ability to credibly commit to peace agreements. Using Cox proportional hazards model, the author finds that external pro-government support primarily serves to sustain the recipient’s ability to continue fighting rather than significantly enhance its chances of victory in a civil war. Furthermore, the impact of such support varies depending on the type of intervention: indirect assistance is associated with a reduced likelihood of the opposition prevailing, whereas direct military intervention does not have a statistically significant influence on the outcome.
References
Gleditsch, N.P., Wallensteen, P., Eriksson, M., Sollenberg, M., & Strand, H. (2002). Armed conflict 1946-2001: a new dataset. Journal of Peace Research, 39(5), 615-637. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343302039005007
Harrell, F.E. (2015). Regression modeling strategies: with applications to linear models, logistic and ordinal regression, and survival analysis. Springer International Publishing.
Heinkelmann-Wild, T., & Mehrl, M. (2022). Indirect governance at war: delegation and orchestration in rebel support. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 66(1), 115-143. https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027211027311
Jones, B.T. (2017). Altering capabilities or imposing costs? Intervention strategy and civil war outcomes. International Studies Quarterly, 61(1), 52-63. https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqw052
Karldn, N. (2023). Escalate to de-escalate? External state support and governments’ willingness to negotiate. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 46(8), 1323-1344. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2020.1835002
King, G., Keohane, R.O., & Verba, S. (1994). Designing social inquiry: scientific inference in qualitative research. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Kreutz, J. (2010). How and when armed conflicts end: introducing the UCDP Conflict Termination Dataset. Journal of Peace Research, 47(2), 243-250. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343309353108
Lee Ray, J. (2003). Explaining interstate conflict and war: what should be controlled for? Conflict Management and Peace Science, 20(2), 1-31. https://doi.org/10.1177/073889420302000201
Lektzian, D., & Regan, P.M. (2016). Economic Sanctions, Military Interventions, and Civil Conflict Outcomes. Journal of Peace Research, 53(4), 554-568. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343316638714
Licht, A.A. (2011). Change comes with time: substantive interpretation of nonproportional hazards in event history analysis. Political Analysis, 19(2), 227-243. https://doi.org/10.1093/pan/mpq039
Licklider, R. (1995). The consequences of negotiated settlements in civil wars, 1945-1993. American Political Science Review, 89(3), 681-690. https://doi.org/10.2307/2082982
Little, R. (1975). Intervention: external involvement in civil wars. London: Rowman & Littlefield.
Maoz, Z., & San Akca, B. (2012). Rivalry and state support of non-state armed groups (NAGs), 1946-2001. International Studies Quarterly, 56(4), 720-734. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2478.2012.00759.x
Mason, T.D., Weingarten, J.P., & Fett, P.J. (1999). Win, lose, or draw: predicting the outcome of civil wars. Political Research Quarterly, 52(2), 239-268. https://doi.org/10.2307/449218
McKibben, H.E., & Skoll, A. (2021). Please help us (or don’t): external interventions and negotiated settlements
in civil conflicts. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 65(2-3), 480-505. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002720950417
Mehrl, M., & Thurner, P.W. (2020). Military technology and human loss in intrastate conflict: the conditional impact of arms imports. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 64(6), 1172-1196. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002719893446
Meier, V., Karldn, N., Pettersson, T., & Croicu, M. (2022). External support in armed conflicts: introducing the UCDP External Support Dataset (ESD), 1975-2017. Journal of Peace Research, 60(3), 545-554. https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433221079864
Modelski, G. (1964). The international relations of internal war. In J.N. Rosenau (Ed.), International Aspects of Civil Strife (pp. 14-44). Princeton: Princeton University Press. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400877843-003
Narang, N. (2015). Assisting uncertainty: how humanitarian aid can inadvertently prolong civil war. International Studies Quarterly, 59(1), 184-195. https://doi.org/10.1111/isqu.12151
Norrevik, S., & Sarwari, M. (2021). Third-party regime type and civil war duration. Journal of Peace Research, 58(6), 1256-1270. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343320975819
Ogutcu-Fu, S.H. (2021). State intervention, external spoilers, and the durability of peace agreements. International Interactions, 47(4), 633-661. https://doi.org/10.1080/03050629.2021.1910822
Pearson, F.S. (1974). Foreign military interventions and domestic disputes. International Studies Quarterly, 18(3), 259-290. https://doi.org/10.2307/2600156
Pillar, P. (1983). Negotiating peace: war termination as a bargaining process. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Powell, R. (2006). War as a commitment problem. International Organization, 60(1). https://doi.org/10/fbd5s3
Regan, P.M. (1996). Conditions of successful third-party intervention in intrastate conflicts. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 40(2), 336-359. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002796040002006
Regan, P. M. (1998). Choosing to intervene: outside interventions in internal conflicts. The Journal of Politics, 60(3), 754-779. https://doi.org/10.2307/2647647
Regan, P.M. (2002). Third-party interventions and the duration of intrastate conflicts. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 46(1), 55-73. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002702046001004
Regan, P.M., & Aydin, A. (2006). Diplomacy and other forms of intervention in civil wars. The Journal of Conflict Resolution, 50(5), 736-756. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002706291579
Reiter, D. (2003). Exploring the bargaining model of war. Perspective on Politics, 1(1), 27-43. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1537592703000033
Rosenau, J.N. (1969). Intervention as a scientific concept. The Journal of Conflict Resolution, 13(2), 149-171. https://doi.org/10.1177/002200276901300201
Salehyan, I. (2010). The delegation of war to rebel organizations. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 54(3), 493-515. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002709357890
Salehyan, I., Gleditsch, K. S., & Cunningham, D. E. (2011). Explaining external support for insurgent groups. International Organization, 65(4), 709-744. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818311000233
San Akca, B. (2009). Supporting non-state armed groups: a resort to illegality? Journal of Strategic Studies, 32(4), 589-613. https://doi.org/10.1080/01402390902987012
Sawyer, K., Cunningham, K.G., & Reed, W. (2017). The role of external support in civil war termination. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 61(6), 1174-1202. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002715600761
Schelling, T.C. (1981). The Strategy of Conflict. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
Small, M., & Singer, J.D. (1982). Resort to arms. International and civil wars, 1816-1980. Beverly Hills: Sage. Sousa, R.R.P. (2015). External interventions in post-Cold War Africa, 1989-2010. International Interactions, 41(4), 621-647. https://doi.org/10.1080/03050629.2015.1028626
Sullivan, P.L., & Karreth, J. (2015). The conditional impact of military intervention on internal armed conflict
outcomes. Conflict Management and Peace Science, 32(3), 269-288. https://doi.org/10.1177/0738894214526540
Tibshirani, R. (1997). The Lasso method for variable selection in the Cox model. Statistics in Medicine, 16(4), 385-395. https://doi.org/10/d2km6p
Tillema, H.K. (1989). Foreign overt military intervention in the nuclear age. Journal of Peace Research, 26(2), 179-196. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343389026002006
Tilly, C. (1978). From Mobilization to Revolution. New York: Random House.
Toft, M.D. (2010). Securing the peace: the durable settlement of civil wars. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Walter, B.F. (2002). Committing to peace: the successful settlement of civil wars. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Walter, B.F. (2009). Bargaining failures and civil war. Annual Review of Political Science, 12(1), 243-261. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.polisci.10.101405.135301
Wittman, D. (1979). How a War Ends: A Rational Model Approach. The Journal of Conflict Resolution, 23(4), 743-763. https://doi.org/10.1177/002200277902300408
Bartenev, V. I. (2018). Intervention in the domestic affairs: questioning definitions. Moscow University Bulletin of World Politics, 10(4), 79-108. (In Russ.)
Deriglazova L.V. (2009). On question of evolution ofpartisan warship. World Economy and International Relations, 4, 95-103. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2009-4-95-103
Istomin, I.A. (2023). Foreign interference in internal affairs: deconstruction of an essentially indeterminate concept. Polis. Political Studies, 2, 120-137. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.17976/jpps/2023.02.09
Stepanova, E.A. (2010). Terrorism in asymmetrical conflict: ideological and structural aspects. Moscow: Nauchnaya kniga. (In Russ.)
Stepanova, E.A. (2023). Ceasefires as a part of war, peace process, or a “no peace, no war” format. International Trends, 21(1), 43-74. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.17994/IT.2023.21.1.72.6
Suchkov, M.A. (2024). Foreign interference as a form of interstate competition: types and motives. Polis. Political Studies, 3, 8-23. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.17976/jpps/2024.03.02
See also:
Suchkov M.A.,
Foreign interference as a form of interstate competition: types and motives. – Polis. Political Studies. 2024. No3
Istomin I.A.,
Foreign interference in internal affairs: deconstruction of an essentially indeterminate concept. – Polis. Political Studies. 2023. No2
Rozov N.S.,
Crisis and Revolutions: Fields of Interaction, Actors’ Strategies, and Trajectories of Conflict Dynamics. – Polis. Political Studies. 2017. No6
Belousov A.B.,
Discrete Model of Lobbyist Communication. – Polis. Political Studies. 2006. No4
Nechayev V.D.,
The Functioning of the Two-Level Models of the Local Self-Government Territorial Organization in RF (With the Voronezhskaya and Orlovskaya Regions as Example). – Polis. Political Studies. 2006. No3