India and Pakistan's responses to the Belt and Road initiative and the future of the “Asian century”
Bhuiyan M. S.,
Shanxi University, Shanxi, Taiyuan, P.R. China, shakil027-pss@sust.edu
Wang, Yi,
Shanxi University, Shanxi, Taiyuan, P.R. China, wangyi999@sxu.edu.cn
Article received: 2023.12.30 20:30. Accepted: 2024.09.11 20:31

DOI: 10.17976/jpps/2025.02.03
EDN: ALLNGZ
Bhuiyan M. S., Wang, Yi India and Pakistan's responses to the Belt and Road initiative and the future of the “Asian century”. – Polis. Political Studies. 2025. No. 2. https://doi.org/10.17976/jpps/2025.02.03. EDN: ALLNGZ
This review article focuses primarily on decoding the nuanced factors influencing India and Pakistan's varied approaches to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The analysis specifically investigates the importance of the India-China relationship for the trajectory of the Asian century. The analysis shows that the historic relationship patterns between China, India, and Pakistan, the economic conditions, and the evolving global and regional geopolitical landscape are influential factors shaping India's and Pakistan's responses to the BRI. These factors have significant implications for bilateral relations as well. The article explores the feasibility of normalized cooperation between China and India, considering China's ties with Pakistan, India's approach to the BRI, and the broader dynamics of great power politics in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). Discussions based on empirical evidence revealed that despite the deep-seated disputes and differences between China and India, complex interdependence instruments exist between them, especially in the economic domain. The analysis argues that although a trilateral cooperation mechanism is unrealistic in the current context, the normalization of relations between India-China and India-Pakistan could be attainable through competitive coexistence with minimal conflicts. The regularization of relations between China, India, and Pakistan could also help promote the vision of the Asian Century. The two key contributions of the secondary analysis are: first, identifying certain non-strategic, non-confrontational areas where India-China and India-Pakistan could collaborate to enhance relations beyond BRI; second, proposing a unified collaborative framework that considers all relevant aspects of the analysis to establish compatible relations, particularly between China and India within a framework of competitive coexistence.
References
Ahmed, Z.S. (2019). Impact of the China-Pakistan economic corridor on nation-building in Pakistan. Journal of Contemporary China, 28(117), 404-414. https://doi.org/10.1080/10670564.2018.1542221
Akbar, M. & Adnan, M. (2017). Geo-strategic location of South Asia and global media with special reference to Pakistan: a critical review. Pakistan Journal of Social Sciences, 37(2), 679-687.
Ali, M. (2019). China-Pakistan Economic Corridor: prospects and challenges. Contemporary South Asia, 28(1), 100-112. https://doi.org/10.1080/09584935.2019.1667302
Ali, S. (2020a). India in its neighborhood: hegemonic behavior? CISS Insight, VII (2), 89-113.
Ali, S.M. (2020b). Case Study 1: The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. In China's Belt and Road Vision (pp. 175-230). Cham: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-36244-7_5
Ali, T., Huang, J., & Xie, W. (2022). Bilateral economic impacts of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Agriculture 12(2), 143. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture12020143.
Athwal, A. (2008). China-India relations contemporary dynamics. London, New York: Routledge.
Banerjee, D. (2014). India-Pakistan strategic relationship: its impact on regional transition. In B. Chakma et al. (Eds.), South Asia in Transition. International Political Economy Series (pp. 247-266). London: Palgrave Macmillan. https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137356642_12
Bashir, S. (2022). The China-India-Pakistan nuclear triangle: consequential choices for Asian security. Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament, 5(2), 336-349. https://doi.org/10.1080/25751654.2022.2141053
Bhattacharjee, D. (2015). China Pakistan Economic Corridor. https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2608927
Bhattarai, G., & Pulami, M.J. (2020). The neo-Kautiliyan facet of Modi's neighbourhood policy: a nonWestern perspective. Stosunki Mi^dzynarodowe — International Relations, 56(2), 39-65.
Bhatti, M.N., Mustafa, G., & Ahmad, F. (2020). China Pakistan Economic Corridor: prospects and challenges. Pakistan Social Sciences Review, 4(1), 292-305. https://doi.org/10.35484/pssr.2020(4-I)23
Boni, F. (2019). Protecting the Belt and Road initiative: China's cooperation with Pakistan to secure CPEC. Asia Policy, 14 (2), 5-12. https://doi.org/10.1353/asp.2019.0024
Chinoy, S.R. (2020). India and the changing dynamics of the Indo-Pacific. Asia Policy, 15(4), 21-36. https://doi.org/10.1353/asp.2020.0049
Chung, Chien-Peng (2018). What are the strategic and economic implications for South Asia of China's Maritime Silk Road initiative? The Pacific Review, 31(3), 315-332. https://doi.org/10.1080/09512748.2017.1375000
Das, T.K. (2019). India and Pakistan conflict: a way towards resolution. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3508975
Gordon, S. (2012). Why South Asia matters in world affairs. Policy, 28(1), 53-56. https://www.cis.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/images/stories/policy-magazine/2012-autumn/28-1-12-sandy-gordon.pdf
Grant, C. (2010). India's response to China's rise (CER Policy Brief). London: Centre for European Reform.
Grechyna, D. (2017). Political instability: the neighbor vs. the partner effect. MPRA Paper 79952. University Library of Munich.
Hali, S. (2020). CPEC; Future Prospects & Challenges for Pakistan. Conference: The Belt and Road Initiative. Perceptions from Japan, Pakistan, and Iran at: Ca’ Foscari University Venezia, Venice, Italy. https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.24838.60483
Hassan, K (2019). CPEC: A win-win for China and Pakistan. Human Affairs, 30, 212-223. https://doi. org/10.1515/humaff-2020-0020
Herrero, A.G., & Xu, J. (2017). China's Belt and Road initiative: can Europe expect trade gains? China and World Economy, 25(6), 84-99. https://doi.org/10.1111/cwe.12222
Hilali, A.Z. (2020). China-Pakistan economic corridor and dynamics of regional connectivity: prospects and challenges. Strategic Studies, 39(4), 89-103. https://doi.org/10.53532/ss.039.04.00100
Hopewell, K. (2022). Balancing, threats, and wedges in international political economy: the origins and impact of the Sino-Indian alliance at the WTO. Journal of Contemporary China, 32(141), 369-385. https://doi.org/10.1080/10670564.2022.2090074
Hussain, M. (2017). China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC): challenges and the way forward. Naval Postgraduate School Monterey.
Imran, M. (2020). Regional dynamics and strategic concerns in South Asia: a case study of Pakistan. Faisalabad: Government College University.
Irshad, M.S., Xin, Q., Hui, Z., & Arshad, H. (2018). An empirical analysis of Pakistan's bilateral trade and trade potential with China: a gravity model approach. Cogent Economics & Finance, 6(1), 1504409. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2018.1504409
Irshad, M., Xin, Q., Xuan, L., & Arshad, H. (2016). Deltoid analysis of Pakistan-Asean-China free trade agreements and opportunities for Pakistan. Asian Economic and Financial Review, 6(5), 228-237. https://doi.org/10.18488/journal.aefr/2016.6.5/102.5.228.237
Islam, M.N., & Cansu, E.E. (2020). BRI, CPEC, AND Pakistan: a qualitative content analysis China's grand strategies. International Journal on World Peace, 37(3), 35-64.
Jacob, J.T. (2017). What does India think of China's ‘Belt and Road' Initiative? ICS Occasional Paper. No. 19. Dehli: Institute of Chinese Studies. https://www.icsin.org/uploads/2017/12/18/8664fcac0850b0af2c40791465301e17.pdf
Javaid, U. (2016). Assessing CPEC: potential threats and prospects. Pakistan Economic and Social Review, 54(1):123-142.
Kanwal, S., Hameed Pitafi, A., Pitafi, P. A., Athar Nadeem, M., Younis, A., & Chong, R. (2019). China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) development projects and entrepreneurial potential of locals. Journal of Public Affairs, 19(4), e1954. https://doi.org/10.1002/pa.1954
Katoch, Dh. (Ed.). (2019). India's foreign policy: towards resurgence. New Delhi: Pentagon Press.
Khan, M.Z.U., & Khan, M.M. (2019). China-Pakistan economic corridor: opportunities and challenges. Strategic Studies, 39(2), 67-82. https://doi.org/10.53532/ss.039.02.00112
Khan, S., & Liu, G. (2018). The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC): challenges and prospects. Area Development and Policy, 4(4), 466-473. https://doi.org/10.1080/23792949.2018.1534549
Khurana, G.S. (2019). India as a challenge to China's Belt and Road initiative. Asia Policy, 14(2), 27-33.
Kumar, S.Y.S. (2019). China's Belt and Road initiative (BRI): India's concerns, responses and strategies. International Journal of China Studies, 10(1), 27-45.
Lim, A.C.H. (2019). The moving border of the China-Pakistan economic corridor. Geopolitics, 24(2), 487-502. https://doi.org/10.1080/14650045.2017.1379009
Mahmood S., Ali G., Menhas, R., & Sabir, M. (2022). Belt and Road initiative as a catalyst of infrastructure development: assessment of resident's perception and attitude towards China-Pakistan economic corridor. PLoS One, 17(7), e0271243. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0271243.
Malone, D.M., & Mukherjee, R. (2010). India and China: conflict and cooperation. Survival, 52(1), 137-158. https://doi.org/10.1080/00396331003612513
Malik, A. (2016). India's neighbourhood policy through the decades. In A. Bhatnagar, & R. Passi (Eds.), Neighbourhood First: Navigating Ties under Modi (pp. 14-23). London: Global Policy and Observer Research Foundation.
Malik, M.M., & Akbar, M. (2021). Challenges and prospects of Pak-China economic corridor. Journal of Development and Social Sciences, 2(4), 386-404. https://doi.org/10.47205/jdss.2021(2-IV)34
Markey, D.S., & West, J. (2016). Behind China's gambit in Pakistan. Council on Foreign Relations, 5(1), 31.
Miller, M.C. (2022). China and the Belt and Road Initiative in South Asia. Discussion Paper. Council on Foreign Relations. https://cdn.cfr.org/sites/default/files/report_pdf/Miller-ChinaBRISouthAsia.pdf
Misson, F.A. (2022). Pakistan-India relations: a critical appraisal of power politics. Strategic Studies, 42(2), 54-71. https://doi.org/10.53532/ss.042.01.00240
Nataraj, G. & Sekhani, R. (2015). China's One Belt One Road - an Indian perspective. Economic and Political Weekly, 50(49), 67-71.
Ogden, C. (2022). the double-edged sword: reviewing India-China relations. India Quarterly, 78(2), 210-228.
Panda, J.P. & Baruah, A.G. (2019). Foreseeing India-China relations: the ‘compromised context' of rapprochement. Asia Pacific, The East-West Center, No. 138. https://www.eastwestcenter.org/sites/default/ files/private/ewc_api-n138_final_web_version.pdf
Pande, A. (2020). From Chanakya to Modi: the evolution of India's foreign policy. Noida: Harper Collins India.
Pant, B. (2018). Socio economic impact of undeclared blockade of India on Nepal. Research Nepal Journal of Development Studies, 1(1), 18-27. https://doi.org/10.3126/rnjds.v1i1.21270
Qaddos, M. (2021). The Pakistan, India, and China Triangle: Pakistan's Place in the Sino-Indian Border Dispute, Indo-Pacific Perspective, 10-14. https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/Portals/10/JIPA/IndoPacificPerspectives/June%202021/03%20Qaddos.pdf.
Rizwanullah, M., Zhi, L.L., Ali, M.U., Yuan, Y.X., Hou, D. & Zhouxue (2020). Role of CPEC in enhancing mutual trust and regional integration: across OBOR countries. International Journal of Business and Social Research, 10(2), 18-27.
Sachdeva, G. (2018). Indian perceptions of the Chinese Belt and Road initiative. International Studies, 55(4), 285-296. https://doi.org/10.1177/0020881718807359
Scott, D. (2009). India's “Extended Neighborhood” concept: power projection for a rising power. India Review, 8(2), 107-143. https://doi.org/10.1080/14736480902901038
Scott, D. (2011). India's relations with Pakistan. In D. Scott (Ed.), Handbook of India's International Relations (pp. 59-69). Routledge.
Set, S., & Pant, H.V. (2023). The Himalayan barrier: India-China relations since Galwan. China Review, 23(1), 135-159.
Shabbir, T. (2017). Rising China and its South Asian neighbors: evolving dynamics and the outlook. Policy Perspectives, 14(2), 137-152. https://doi.org/10.13169/polipers.14.2.0137
Shaheen, M., & Panhwar, M.H. (2021). Belt and Road initiative: challenges and opportunities for Pakistan. Asia Pacific, 39, 147-160. https://10.47781/asia-pacific.vol39.Iss0.4369
Sharma, M. (2019). India’s approach to China’s Belt and Road initiative-opportunities and concerns. The Chinese Journal of Global Governance, 5(2), 136-152
Sial, S. (2014). The China-Pakistan economic corridor: an assessment of potential threats and constraints. Conflict and Peace Studies, 6, 24.
Singh, Z.D. (2014). Indian Perceptions of China’s Maritime Silk Road idea. Journal of Defence Studies, 8(4), 133-148.
Singh, A.K. (2021). India-China rivalry: asymmetric no longer. KW Publishers Pvt Ltd.
Singh, S (2021). COVID-19 and India-China Equations: Examining their Interface in the Indian Ocean Region. Chinese Studies Journal, 15, 111-132.
Small, A. (2015). The China-Pakistan axis: Asia’s new geopolitics. New York: Oxford University Press.
Small, A. (2017). First movement: Pakistan and the Belt and Road initiative. Asia Policy, 24, 80-87.
Syed, J. (2018). China’s Belt and Road initiative: a perspective from Pakistan. Working Paper: LUMS/ CPMI/2018/05/2. Lahore University of Management Sciences.
Ullah, S., Hafeez, M., Aziz, B., & Ahmad, H. (2018). Pakistan-China regional trade potentials in the light of CPEC. National Conference on CPEC, Institutions and Inclusive Growth in Pakistan. At: Quaid- e-Azam Library, Hafiz Hayat Campus, University of Gujrat, Pakistan.
Waqar-un-Nisa (2017). Pakistan-India equation: determinants, dynamics and the outlook. Policy perspectives. The Journal of the Institute of Policy Studies, 14(1), 23-57. https://10.13169/polipers.14.1.0023
Wen, R., & Saleem, H. (2021). The opportunities and challenges that the Belt and Road initiative brings: analysis from perspective of China-Pakistan economic corridor. American Journal of Industrial and Business Management, 11, 675-691. https://10.4236/ajibm.2021.116044
Wirsing, R.G. (2004). India-Pakistan relations: breaking with the past? Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies. https://dkiapcss.edu/Publications/SAS/AsiaBilateralRelations/India-PakistanRelationsWirsing.pdf
Wu, F. (2019). India’s pragmatic foreign policy toward China’s BRI and AIIB: struggling for relative and absolute gains. Journal of Contemporary China, 29(123), 354-368. https://doi.org/10.1080/10670564.2019.1645486
Yang, Y. (2015). Sino-India bilateral relations: review and prospects. In Wang, R., & Zhu, C. (Eds.), Annual Report on the Development of International Relations in the Indian Ocean Region (2014) (pp. 191-222). Springer.
Ye, H. (2017). India’s policy regarding South Asia and its impact on China’s pushing forward of the Belt and Road initiative. In R. Wang, & C. Zhu (Eds.), Annual Report on the Development of the Indian Ocean Region (2016) (pp. 37-52). Springer.
Zhou, L., Mao, Y., Fu, Q., Xu, D., Zhou, J., & Zeng, S. (2023). A study on the belt and road initiative’s trade and its influencing factors: evidence of China-South Asia’s panel data. PLoS One, 18(4). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0282167
See also:
Lukin A.V.,
Russia and China in Greater Eurasia. – Polis. Political Studies. 2020. No5
Zabella A.A.,
Belt and Road Initiative and the African continental free trade area. – Polis. Political Studies. 2024. No1
Korybko A., Morozov V.M.,
Pakistan’s Role In Russia’s Greater Eurasian Partnership. – Polis. Political Studies. 2020. No3
Zabella A.A.,
Major power rivalry in Africa: a view from China. – Polis. Political Studies. 2022. No1
Lebedeva M.M., Kuznetsov D.A.,
Transregional Integration as a New Phenomenon of World Politics: Nature and Prospects. – Polis. Political Studies. 2019. No5