On methods of estimating current condition and of forecasting social instability:
attempted quantitative analysis of the events of the Arab spring
Malkov S.Yu.Korotayev A.V.,
Dr. Sci. (Philos.), Dr. Sci. (Hist.), Professor, Head of Centre for Stability and Risk Analysis, HSE University; Senior Research Fellow, RUDN University; Professor of the Faculty of Global Studies, M.V. Lomonosov Moscow State University, akorotayev@gmail.com
elibrary_id: 72980 | ORCID: 0000-0003-3014-2037 | RESEARCHER_ID: N-1160-2018
Isayev L.M.,
Cand. Sci. (Pol. Sci.), Vice-Head of the Laboratory for the Monitoring of Sociopolitical Destabilization Risks, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia, isleonid@yandex.ru
elibrary_id: 642938 |
Kuzminova Ye.V.
Malkov S.Yu., Korotayev A.V., Isayev L.M., Kuzminova Ye.V. On methods of estimating current condition and of forecasting social instability: attempted quantitative analysis of the events of the Arab spring . – Polis. Political Studies. 2013. No. 4
The anti-regime actions that began in 2011 and in the same year began to be everywhere named the Arab spring, seized practically all Arab countries, except Somalia, Djibouti and Comoros – all situated at the periphery of the Arab Orient. The said events of 2011 exerted considerable influence on the very specter of further political development and somewhere even cardinally changed the existing political regimes. This work presents “reconnaissance by data analysis” and is an endeavor of quantitative estimation of socio-political commotions, with the aim to elaborate the methods of counting up the instability index, that would allow to evaluate potential of “conflictogeneousness” in Arab countries.