Urbanization and Political Instability:
to the Development of Mathematical Models of Political Processes
Grinin L.Ye.,
Dr. Sci. (Philos.), Principal Researcher, Centre for Stability and Risk Analysis, National Research University Higher School of Economics; Leading Researcher, Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences, leonid.grinin@gmail.com
elibrary_id: 250272 | ORCID: 0000-0003-0278-2619 | RESEARCHER_ID: D-8842-2012
Korotayev A.V.,
Dr. Sci. (Philos.), Dr. Sci. (Hist.), Professor, Head of Centre for Stability and Risk Analysis, HSE University; Senior Research Fellow, RUDN University; Professor of the Faculty of Global Studies, M.V. Lomonosov Moscow State University, akorotayev@gmail.com
elibrary_id: 72980 | ORCID: 0000-0003-3014-2037 | RESEARCHER_ID: N-1160-2018
Grinin L.Ye., Korotayev A.V. Urbanization and Political Instability: to the Development of Mathematical Models of Political Processes . – Polis. Political Studies. 2009. No. 4
Presented in the article is a mathematical urbanization model which makes one suggest that the highest probability of bloody upheavals that may ensue in the course of internal political life, should be inherent in the indices of the proportion of the urban population between 7,5 and 22,5 per cent. This hypothesis has been corroborated by an empirical cross-national test. It has been demonstrated that at early stages of modernization, the urbanization growth is accompanied by growth of the probability of particularly bloody sociopolitical upheavals; however, further growth of urbanization is accompanied by a decrease of this probability. On the whole, with urbanization higher than 15 to 22,5 per cent, statistically significant negative correlation between urbanization level and probable frequency of occurrence of bloody political upheavals is observed.